Macroeconomics | Chaleampong Kongcharoen

Macroeconomic Modelling and Risk Analytics for Government Savings Bank

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Since 2018, a sustained series of projects has been carried out for the Government Savings Bank of Thailand (ธนาคารออมสิน), covering macroeconomic forecasting, credit risk modelling, and economic sentiment measurement:

Macroeconomic Model Validation and GDP Forecasting (2018–2021): As principal investigator, conducted four consecutive annual projects to test, update, and improve a macroeconomic model for estimating Thailand’s quarterly GDP growth. Each cycle included model validation, parameter re-estimation, and updated quarterly forecasts.
Credit Application Scoring Model (2019): Developed and deployed an Application Scoring Model (Application Scoring) to assess credit risk for credit card and cash card applicants, in collaboration with ITG, including a four-year maintenance contract. A full applied machine learning and econometric pipeline for a major state financial institution.
Grassroots Economic Confidence Index (2025, ongoing): As principal investigator, currently designing and implementing a nationwide survey to construct a Grassroots Economic Confidence Index (ดัชนีความเชื่อมั่นเศรษฐกิจฐานราก) and public opinion poll, capturing economic sentiment at household and community level.

Macroeconomic Modelling for NESDC

Fri, 01 Jan 2016 00:00:00 +0000

Provided macroeconomic modelling services to the National Economic and Social Development Council (สำนักงานคณะกรรมการพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ / สภาพัฒน์) across two projects:

ASEAN Integration and Inequality (2015): Used economic modelling to assess how Thailand’s participation in the ASEAN Economic Community affects income inequality, and developed recommendations for strengthening social protection systems (with Arayah Preechametta and team).
Current Quarter Model (CQM) for GDP Nowcasting (2016): Developed and refined a Current Quarter Model for estimating quarterly economic growth in near real-time, supporting NESDC’s macroeconomic monitoring and planning functions (with Pranee Tinakorn and team).

Econometric Modelling for the Ministry of Commerce

Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Over multiple engagements spanning 2004–2023, provided econometric modelling and policy analysis services to Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce and related offices:

Index Forecasting Model (2004): Developed a forecasting model for economic trade indices for the Office of Trade and Economic Indices (สำนักดัชนีเศรษฐกิจการค้า), Ministry of Commerce (with Thatri Jantarakolika and Pawin Siriprapanut).
Macroeconomic Forecasting Model (2012): Built a macroeconomic model for economic projection under the mandate of the Office of Macroeconomic Trade Policy (สำนักนโยบายเศรษฐกิจการพาณิชย์มหภาค), Ministry of Commerce.
Econometric Model Development (2013, 2014): Two consecutive projects developing and refining applied econometric models for trade and economic policy analysis (with Thatri Jantarakolika and team).
Inequality Reduction under the New Economy (2023): Studied pathways for reducing economic inequality in the context of Thailand’s digital and green economic transition, submitted to the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (สำนักงานนโยบายและยุทธศาสตร์การค้า), Ministry of Commerce (with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thorn Pitidol and team).

Econometric and Digital Budgeting Systems for the Budget Bureau

Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Provided analytical and systems design services to Thailand’s Budget Bureau (สำนักงบประมาณ) across two projects:

Econometric Model for Budget Strategy (2018): Developed a macroeconomic econometric model for the Bureau’s Budget Strategy Division (กองยุทธศาสตร์การงบประมาณ) to support evidence-based fiscal planning and budget allocation decisions (with Satra Sudsawat and team).
New e-Budgeting System Design (2022): Analysed and designed the conceptual framework for a new electronic budget management system (New e-Budgeting), covering system architecture, workflow design, and data integration requirements to modernise Thailand’s public financial management infrastructure.

Housing Mortgage Credit Forecasting Model

Sun, 01 Jan 2017 00:00:00 +0000

As principal investigator, developed a forecasting model for housing mortgage credit for the Government Housing Bank (ธนาคารอาคารสงเคราะห์) and the broader Thai banking system. The model supports strategic planning and risk management by projecting loan demand under various macroeconomic scenarios, incorporating interest rate dynamics, income growth, and housing market conditions.

Macroeconomic Impact of Transport Infrastructure Investment

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Submitted to the Public Debt Management Office (สำนักบริหารหนี้สาธารณะ), these two projects assessed the economic returns and spillover effects of major public infrastructure investments in Thailand:

Transport Infrastructure Strategy Macroeconomic Model (2016): Built a macroeconomic model to assess the economy-wide impact of Thailand’s transport infrastructure development strategy, as part of a broader project management consultancy (with Thatri Jantarakolika and team).
Rail Mass Transit Economic Impact Assessment (2018): Estimated the economic effects of rail transport investment for use in planning future transit projects, focusing on multiplier effects and long-run productivity gains from improved connectivity.

Valuing Intellectual Property Assets in Thai Businesses

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Submitted to Thailand’s Department of Intellectual Property (กรมทรัพย์สินทางปัญญา), this project developed a rigorous econometric framework for measuring the economic value of intellectual property assets — including patents, trademarks, and copyrights — held by Thai businesses. The methodology draws on asset pricing theory and production function approaches, providing a practical valuation tool for IP-intensive industries and policymakers assessing the returns to innovation.

Economic Forecasting and Social Condition Analysis

Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0000

Submitted to the Office of the National Economic and Social Advisory Council (สำนักงานสภาที่ปรึกษาเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ), this project conducted applied economic forecasting and assessed prevailing social conditions in Thailand to support evidence-based advisory functions of the council (with Arayah Preechametta and team).

Critical Constraints to Services Sector Development in Thailand

Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 +0000

Commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), this project examined the critical constraints — regulatory, institutional, and structural — that impede the growth and competitiveness of Thailand’s services sector. The analysis provided evidence-based recommendations to support services sector reform and economic diversification policy.